Judge era-4 from day 6 (2026-08-13) — the first ~5 days carry the position phase-lock transient. Prior eras for reference: era-3 (07-27 → 08-07) −$2,417 on $6,819,136 (−3.54 bp).
Deployed config b2d875de · fingerprint
0d4fb599c413 · expectation-sim identity: MATCH
· DV $10,000 · width-matched April lineage, governor off, band off.
BTC sim volume carries the measured ~4.9× haircut — expected live/sim ratio ≈ 0.20
(unlike SOL's ≈ 0.5); alignment bands are set off that expectation.
The day-scoped view: what the fleet has done since 00:00 UTC. Tiles cover both books; the three charts below are SOL-book scoped (the BTC intraday mirror lives in the BTC panel above).
Volume by hour
traded notional per UTC hour
P&L today
live vs the era-4 mirror, both rebased to 00:00
range −$1,581 to $930
Inventory today (SOL)
net position level, not a cumulative
range −1,315 to 1,328 SOL
Hover any chart below — the crosshair reads the same minute on all three at once, so volume, P&L and inventory can be compared at a single point in time. Dashed vertical rules are campaign events: go-live · 08:36 restart · era-3 DV260 · restart (unplanned) · stop → rebalance → restart · era-3 down (incident) · era-4 a1/b1 deploy · BTC go-live · ETH go-live. Dotted grey is the SOL mid on its own scale (71.26–78.66) — price context only, never a magnitude comparison against the lines above it.
Cumulative volume traded
live execution against the simulated mirror of the same roster
Cumulative P&L
separate chart, separate scale — volume and P&L never share an axis
Simulation stops at 2026-08-13 18:01 — the mirror can only replay minutes the data lake has ingested.
Net inventory (SOL)
position level, live vs the simulated mirror — a level, never a cumulative
Derived per point as USD inventory ÷ that point's mid, so a price move alone never reads as an inventory move. The cap is a constant-dollar limit (±$150,000 for the live era-4 book; historically ±$112,500 era-3, ±$175,000 era-2) converted to SOL once at render — converting per point would make the guide itself appear to drift with price.
| Seat | DV | Volume | P&L | Capture | Vol/$DV | Inventory | Halt used | E(vol)/E(P&L) day | Uptime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a1 era-4 anchor t4 | $25,000 | $3,431,770 | $1,450 | +4.22 bp | 137.3× | −657.8 | 36% | $826,948 / −$25 | 100.0% |
| b1 era-4 t6 | $25,000 | $2,733,782 | $307 | +1.12 bp | 109.4× | 0.2 | 2% | $881,343 / $108 | 100.0% |
| k1 1-tick probe | $50 | $13,888 | −$3 | −1.91 bp | 277.8× | −1.3 | 5% | $4,153 / $0 | 100.0% |
These stopped at the 07-27 changeover. Their totals are real and are part of the campaign P&L, but they are not running now — which is why they are not in the table above. Never add their P&L to the live-era figures above.
| Seat | Volume | P&L | Capture |
|---|---|---|---|
| r1 retired at changeover | $3,487,287 | −$423 | −1.21 bp |
| v2 retired at changeover | $3,604,419 | −$1,779 | −4.94 bp |
| v3 retired at changeover | $1,714,254 | $216 | +1.26 bp |
| v4 retired at changeover | $904,165 | −$708 | −7.83 bp |
| r7 retired at changeover | $667,721 | −$559 | −8.37 bp |
| s4 retired at changeover | $483,324 | −$694 | −14.36 bp |
| s1 retired at changeover | $595,762 | −$178 | −2.99 bp |
| k2 retired at changeover | $8,066 | −$7 | −8.78 bp |
Every trading day since the campaign opened, live against the mirror. Days before the 07-27 changeover are the era-2 roster.
| Date | Live volume | Fills | Live P&L | Sim volume | Sim P&L | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | $1,200 | 28 | $1.07 | $1,450 | $0.90 | deployment-A canary (DV$50 scale) |
| 2026-07-20 | $3,946 | 88 | $4.96 | $3,802 | $4.06 | deployment-A canary (DV$50 scale) |
| 2026-07-21 | $728,100 | 739 | $250.60 | $823,940 | −$293.59 | harness day, full-size go-live 02:30 UTC. LIVE vol is Ankit's stated figure (OrderFlow-log reconstruction cross-check: $715,774, ~1.7% lower). SIM carries a known 08:36-08:46 head-start contamination (annotated, not adjusted). |
| 2026-07-22 | $1,040,842 | 289 | $2,832.30 | $1,330,434 | $2,790.16 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-23 | $1,119,545 | 248 | −$1,406.17 | $1,576,859 | −$148.56 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-24 | $732,671 | 203 | −$2,358.95 | $1,418,609 | −$2,213.64 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-25 | $560,250 | 107 | $508.38 | $1,261,712 | −$604.06 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-26 | $545,811 | 130 | −$1,179.90 | $1,705,143 | −$22.76 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-27 | $966,434 | 188 | −$970.37 | $1,338,390 | −$719.39 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-28 | $491,034 | 134 | −$651.41 | $1,173,029 | $689.51 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-29 | $1,147,354 | 242 | −$317.46 | $236,239 | −$276.35 | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-30 | $703,193 | 98 | $801.18 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-07-31 | $520,729 | 95 | −$131.51 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-01 | $280,603 | 76 | −$556.12 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-02 | $568,029 | 78 | −$407.98 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-03 | $538,647 | 132 | $6.02 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-04 | $649,129 | 170 | −$124.07 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-05 | $587,446 | 141 | −$321.64 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-06 | $439,320 | 90 | $803.75 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-07 | $1,069,198 | 133 | $874.12 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-08 | $787,736 | 96 | −$2,619.93 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-09 | $838,561 | 69 | −$668.69 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-10 | $952,355 | 100 | $1,958.57 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-11 | $841,310 | 89 | −$686.20 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-12 | $799,830 | 86 | $1,489.49 | — | — | reconstructed from archived per-seat snapshots |
| 2026-08-13 | $975,917 | 482 | $917.00 | — | — | in progress, live data through 20:16 UTC, sim through 03:01 UTC |
| Check | Value | State | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily excursion | −$119 | OK | worst drawdown so far today, vs the same clock time on 23 past days |
| Fleet halt distance | 2% | OK | day's worst fleet excursion against the −$6,000 fleet halt |
| Worst seat halt distance | 36% | OK | the single worst seat against its OWN halt (a1 −$2.5k / b1 −$6k / k1 −$50) |
| Live vs sim (era-4) | vr 0.49 | Watch | hourly matched live/sim fill ratio vs the 0.50 calibration (era-4 mirror) |
| Tier-1 pace | 3.21x | OK | our $/h vs the $/h required to reach the projected EOW bar (live exchange volume) |
| Capital | floor $35k | OK | worst-case USDT floor at max-long (policy ≥ $30k) · sell-side structural cover |
| SOL quoting | fill 6m ago | OK | minutes since the SOL book's last fill (liveness, not P&L) |
| BTC quoting | fill 15m ago | OK | minutes since the BTC seat's last maker fill (liveness) |
| SOL heartbeat | 4 orders (BUY+SELL) | OK | quoting heartbeat — open orders present at exchange (placements, not fills) |
| BTC heartbeat | 1 order (BUY) | OK | quoting heartbeat — open orders present at exchange (placements, not fills) |
| ETH heartbeat | 2 orders (BUY+SELL) | OK | quoting heartbeat — open orders present at exchange (placements, not fills) |
| BTC net delta | $-20k | OK | seat envelope swing beyond the hedged baseline (by design, cap ±$30k = 3×DV) |
| BTC mirror | vr 1.511 (expect ~0.204) | Watch | hourly matched BTC live/sim vs the 0.204 haircut expectation |
Today's worst drawdown is −$119 (at 01:25), best $918 (at 09:55), currently $917. 22 of 23 past days were deeper by this hour. The comparison is time-of-day matched — a full day's drawdown is not compared against a part-day, which would always flatter today.
| Date | Worst | at | Best | at | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | −$773 | 06:40 | $29 | 04:30 | −$127 |
| 2026-07-22 | −$482 | 00:45 | $2,691 | 20:15 | $2,691 |
| 2026-07-23 | −$1,653 | 18:05 | $296 | 11:15 | −$1,586 |
| 2026-07-24 | −$2,838 | 14:45 | $256 | 02:50 | −$2,373 |
| 2026-07-25 | −$424 | 08:10 | $529 | 20:10 | $508 |
| 2026-07-26 | −$574 | 04:45 | $0 | 00:00 | −$181 |
| 2026-07-27 | −$445 | 14:45 | $641 | 14:15 | $376 |
| 2026-07-28 | −$1,024 | 04:35 | $0 | 00:00 | −$516 |
| 2026-07-29 | −$733 | 20:10 | $827 | 02:40 | −$488 |
| 2026-07-30 | −$174 | 08:05 | $638 | 00:55 | $547 |
| 2026-07-31 | −$359 | 01:10 | $523 | 14:20 | $81 |
| 2026-08-01 | −$771 | 18:50 | $139 | 05:10 | −$415 |
| 2026-08-02 | −$803 | 05:00 | $0 | 00:00 | −$657 |
| 2026-08-03 | −$546 | 18:15 | $369 | 04:35 | −$373 |
| 2026-08-04 | −$500 | 07:20 | $32 | 01:25 | −$105 |
| 2026-08-05 | −$888 | 02:45 | $16 | 00:35 | −$340 |
| 2026-08-06 | −$359 | 02:30 | $545 | 19:30 | $469 |
| 2026-08-07 | −$703 | 13:50 | $812 | 19:15 | $304 |
| 2026-08-08 | −$3,729 | 15:15 | $68 | 00:20 | −$2,825 |
| 2026-08-09 | −$228 | 16:10 | $579 | 14:50 | $135 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0 | 00:00 | $1,507 | 20:15 | $1,507 |
| 2026-08-11 | −$806 | 15:55 | $1,041 | 12:00 | −$307 |
| 2026-08-12 | −$201 | 07:45 | $1,620 | 17:50 | $1,466 |
The mirror runs the exact deployed config and binary, so it is a like-for-like
comparison — but its fill model credits us decrossSweepKappa = 0.7 of any
sweep that trades through a resting quote, and that path carries roughly 63% of
simulated volume.
Live, price running through a resting order is adverse selection, not income. So the simulation systematically flatters exactly the behaviour that costs money in the market. Treat any sim-vs-live gap as a lower bound on the problem.
Era-3 (the DV260 roster) went live 2026-07-27 06:46 UTC. It is a different strategy from era-2 — different seats, sizes and geometry. Stitching their cumulative totals would be a fiction, so the money tier is scoped to the LIVE era (era-4 since 2026-08-07 13:04) and the campaign figure is labelled separately.
Per-seat counters reset on every restart. The series here is restart-stitched; reconciliation against exchange balances is the independent check, shown above.
Bar = min(0.05% × weekly market volume, $25M), from the canonical
tier-qualification source — canonical min(0.05% x market volume, $25M) -- week of 2026-08-03. The $25M cap has bound in
60 of 84 weeks historically, but is
not binding this week, so the real bar is $9,313,453 rather than the cap.
This week's own bar cannot be known until the week closes; the last completed week stands in as a static reference.
Live bar (2026-08-11): the goal tile now tracks the CURRENT week directly —
exchange maker volume from the firm's Superset dashboard (chart 174, refreshed hourly)
gives the bar accrued so far (0.05% × exchange volume to date) and a projected
end-of-week bar (exchange pace × weekday weighting, weekends counted at 60% of a
weekday, capped $25M). "Required pace" is the $/h that closes the gap from our
week-to-date volume to that projected bar over the hours remaining; the Tier-1 pace tile
bands on it (OK ≥ 1.0×, WATCH ≥ 0.8×, ALERT < 0.8×). If the Superset feed fails, the
tile falls back to the static reference and says so.
The page rebuilds every 15 minutes. Live figures come from the strategy's own logs on the trading host, read-only. The simulation mirror advances hourly and can only replay minutes the lake has ingested, so it always trails — a lag of a few hours is normal, and the banner above fires when it exceeds five.
A stale simulation degrades this page; it does not block it. Live figures keep updating regardless.
| Time (UTC) | Live volume | Live P&L | Sim volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 02:25 | — | — | $100 |
| 2026-07-21 12:15 | $273,743 | −$316 | $241,408 |
| 2026-07-21 22:00 | $658,512 | −$130 | $673,104 |
| 2026-07-22 07:40 | $1,063,736 | $341 | $1,154,612 |
| 2026-07-22 17:25 | $1,529,424 | $1,887 | $1,794,080 |
| 2026-07-23 03:05 | $2,079,369 | $2,497 | $2,496,595 |
| 2026-07-23 12:50 | $2,390,547 | $2,018 | $2,777,620 |
| 2026-07-23 22:35 | $2,855,810 | $1,010 | $3,682,935 |
| 2026-07-24 09:50 | $3,284,038 | $613 | $4,366,497 |
| 2026-07-24 19:40 | $3,537,449 | −$1,080 | $4,909,152 |
| 2026-07-25 05:20 | $3,717,348 | −$944 | $5,441,991 |
| 2026-07-25 15:05 | $4,001,172 | −$1,069 | $6,041,987 |
| 2026-07-26 00:45 | $4,228,206 | −$620 | $6,519,015 |
| 2026-07-26 12:05 | $4,424,964 | −$914 | $7,159,006 |
| 2026-07-26 21:50 | $4,644,175 | −$999 | $7,985,316 |
| 2026-07-27 07:35 | $4,983,496 | −$1,724 | $4,975,100 |
| 2026-07-27 18:55 | $5,517,265 | −$1,530 | $5,396,692 |
| 2026-07-28 04:35 | $5,748,599 | −$3,765 | $5,646,324 |
| 2026-07-28 17:35 | $6,031,642 | −$3,451 | $6,057,363 |
| 2026-07-29 03:15 | $6,411,143 | −$2,886 | $6,316,363 |
| 2026-07-29 14:55 | $6,921,808 | −$3,643 | $6,628,605 |
| 2026-07-30 00:40 | $7,332,125 | −$3,326 | $7,016,148 |
| 2026-07-30 12:00 | $7,747,814 | −$3,381 | $7,382,101 |
| 2026-07-30 21:50 | $7,961,839 | −$3,129 | $7,492,363 |
| 2026-07-31 07:35 | $8,297,552 | −$2,945 | $7,709,717 |
| 2026-07-31 18:55 | $8,502,851 | −$2,840 | $7,857,707 |
| 2026-08-01 07:55 | $8,583,386 | −$2,927 | $8,284,017 |
| 2026-08-01 19:20 | $8,694,687 | −$3,488 | $8,664,418 |
| 2026-08-02 05:05 | $8,974,251 | −$4,328 | $8,884,393 |
| 2026-08-02 16:30 | $9,261,942 | −$3,886 | $9,294,634 |
| 2026-08-03 02:20 | $9,527,516 | −$3,700 | $9,525,486 |
| 2026-08-03 13:35 | $9,719,052 | −$3,982 | $9,816,399 |
| 2026-08-03 23:20 | $9,930,565 | −$4,017 | $10,094,902 |
| 2026-08-04 09:05 | $10,299,712 | −$4,294 | $10,477,949 |
| 2026-08-04 18:50 | $10,498,424 | −$4,129 | $10,653,135 |
| 2026-08-05 04:40 | $10,889,418 | −$4,491 | $11,029,801 |
| 2026-08-05 14:25 | $10,990,551 | −$4,420 | $11,248,039 |
| 2026-08-06 00:10 | $11,167,140 | −$4,428 | $11,512,494 |
| 2026-08-06 11:30 | $11,399,780 | −$4,286 | $11,815,852 |
| 2026-08-06 21:15 | $11,550,859 | −$3,996 | $12,044,063 |
| 2026-08-07 08:35 | $11,697,100 | −$3,651 | $12,214,649 |
| 2026-08-07 19:40 | $12,675,190 | −$3,010 | $12,937,770 |
| 2026-08-08 07:05 | $12,777,028 | −$4,226 | $14,097,643 |
| 2026-08-08 18:25 | $13,034,474 | −$5,803 | $14,942,695 |
| 2026-08-09 04:15 | $13,538,472 | −$5,132 | $15,839,084 |
| 2026-08-09 17:10 | $14,002,232 | −$5,419 | $16,488,137 |
| 2026-08-10 07:35 | $14,600,914 | −$5,296 | $17,632,167 |
| 2026-08-10 17:15 | $14,950,050 | −$4,854 | $18,385,707 |
| 2026-08-11 03:20 | $15,504,737 | −$3,601 | $19,092,517 |
| 2026-08-11 15:55 | $15,792,086 | −$4,844 | $20,215,612 |
| 2026-08-12 03:45 | $16,171,083 | −$4,604 | $21,044,042 |
| 2026-08-12 13:30 | $16,571,643 | −$3,508 | $21,746,175 |
| 2026-08-12 23:15 | $16,945,860 | −$3,461 | $22,486,408 |
| 2026-08-13 10:35 | $17,345,451 | −$2,560 | $23,507,017 |
| 2026-08-13 20:16 | $17,921,777 | −$2,358 | — |